Analysis of the relationship between input parameters and students’ academic performance

The search for reliable and simple predictors of academic success of students is an urgent task of forming a result-oriented educational policy. The article examines the problem of the relationship between the starting level of applicants and their further academic performance as students of a technical university. The study was conducted using dynamic series of USE scores, internal entrance tests and intermediate certification of students, conjugacy analysis, comparative analysis (N = 13255). Hypotheses about the additional influence of factors of the level structure of education, the gender of students, and the type of previous education on academic performance have been tested. As a result, it was found that among the parameters "at the entrance", entrance scores have a high predictive potential for future performance, and the level of education received, the gender of the student, and the status of previous education do not have a significant impact.

1. Zamkov, O. O., Peresetsky, A. A. The Unified State Exam and the academic success of undergraduate students at the Higher School of Economics // Applied econometrics. – 2013. – № 2(30). – Рp. 98–111. – EDN RYGOTT.

2. Kupriyanov, R. B., Semenov, A. L. Analysis of the dynamics of educational outcomes of students of a large pedagogical university // Bulletin of the Moscow State Pedagogical University. Series: Informatics and informatization of education. – 2018. – № 1(43). – Рp. 37–43. – EDN NZLRN.

3. Ablameyko, S. V., Khukhlyndina, L. M., Samokhval, V. V., Barchenok, A. V. On the relationship between the academic performance of students of the Belarusian State University with the results of centralized testing conducted upon admission to study and with the average score of the document on pre-university education // Continuous education system "school-university". Innovations and prospects: сollection of articles of the International Scientific and Practical Conference, Minsk, February 23–24, 2017. – Minsk: Belarusian National Technical University, 2017. – Pp. 11–15. – EDN VAZVTR.

4. Alekseenko, S. N., Gaivoronskaya, T. V., Drobot N.N. The results of the unified state exam and the dynamics of academic performance of medical students during their studies at the university // Modern science-intensive technologies. – 2020. – № 11-1. – Pp. 99–104. – https://doi.org/10.17513/snt.38345. – EDN KTDLTL.

5. Ershikov, S. M., Medvedeva, N. B., Potapov, P. P. Results of the unified state exam as a predictor of academic performance in higher education // Modern problems of science and education. – 2024. – № 2. – Р. 96. – https://doi.org/spno.33393. – EDN NOKHUU.

6. Loder, A. Student performance correlates of psychology admission exam scores and the number of places for students // Acta psychologica. – 2024. – Vol. 250. – Рр. 104523. – https://doi.org/j.actpsy.2024.104523.

7. Iqbal, S., Kiyani, A., Niazi, M., Malik, F., Saeed, M., Bashir, U. Predicting Success: A Comprehensive Analysis of High School and Admission Test Scores on Future Academic Performance of Dental Students // Cureus. – 2024. – Vol. 16. – № 4. – Рр. e56279. – https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.56279.

8. Yusoff, M. S. B., Fuad, A., Baba, A., Esa, A. R. Medical Student Selection Process and Its PreAdmission Scores Association with the New Students' Academic Performance in Universiti Sains Malaysia // International Medical Journal (1994). – 2011. – Vol. 18. – № 4. – Рр. 327–331.

9. Rochev, K. V., Kudelin, A. G., Semyashkina A.V. Investigation of the integrated impact of the Unified State Exam on the academic development of students // International Scientific Research Journal. – 2024. – № 9(147). – Рp. 49–55. – https://doi.org/10.60797/IRJ.2024.147.49. – EDN JUDDAS.

10. Pereyaslavskaya, L. B., Pereyaslavsky, V. I. A study of correlations between the results of the Unified State Exam in mathematics of applicants and their academic performance at the university // Bulletin of the Association of Universities of Tourism and Service. – 2014. – Vol. 8. – № 4. – Pp. 49–56. – https://doi.org/10.12737/6475. – EDN SZDJRR.

11. Komkova, O. G., Perevedentseva, S. E., Vorsina, E. V. A study of the relationship between the academic performance of first-year medical university students with high starting indicators // Psychological and pedagogical journal Gaudeamus. – 2024. – Vol. 23. – № 3. – Pp. 38–47. – https://doi.org/10.20310/1810-231X2024-23-3-38-47. – EDN MSQWGQ.

12. Isaeva, E. R., Tyusova, O. V., Tishkov, A. V. [et al.] Search for predictive criteria of students' academic performance // University management: practice and analysis. – 2017. – Vol. 21. – № 2(108). – Рp. 163–175. – EDN YRORWZ.

13. Almarabheh, A., Shehata, M., Ismaeel, A., Atwa, H., Jaradat, A. Predictive validity of admission criteria in predicting academic performance of medical students: A retrospective cohort study // Frontiers in Medicine. – 2022. – Vol. 9. – Рр. 971926. – https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2022.971926.

14. Baik, C., Naylor, R., Arkoudis, S., Dabrowski, A. Examining the experiences of first-year students with low tertiary admission scores in Australian universities // Studies in Higher Education. – 2017. – Vol. 44. – № 11. – Рр. 2067–2079. – https://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2017.1383376.

15. Mosia, M., Egara, F., Fadip, N., Basitere M. Bayesian Growth Curve Modelling of Student Academic Trajectories: The Impact of Individual-Level Characteristics and Implications for Education Policy // Applied Sciences. – 2025. – Vol. 15. – № 3. – Рр. 1426. – https://doi.org/10.3390/app15031426.

16. Merchant, A., Afzal, N., Rahim, K. A., Jamal, W., Rahim, A., Bakhshi, S., Qadeer, N., Noorali, A. A., Mahmood, S. B. Z., Akbarali, L., Tariq, M., Khan, S., Haider, A. Application to: association between preadmission factors, admission scores, and medical students’ performance // BMC Medical Education. – 2025. – Vol. 25. – Рр. 18. – https://doi.org/10.1186/s12909-025-06800-z.